BERGEN Norway -- Norway's electronic auction house for pelagic species, Norges Sildesalgslag, has not seen any impact on prices to the fishermen from either the coronavirus outbreak or the ongoing issues around Atlantic Marine Stewardship Council (MSC) certificates thus far, sales director Knut Torgnes told Undercurrent News.

Fresh products are not really traded from Norway to China, so the latter's slowdown in trade has meant little for sales, he said.

“If the outbreak continues it could start impacting on mackerel processing done in China for Japan, with a knock-on effect for Europe,” he said.

Similarly, the suspension of the MSC certificate on northeast Atlantic mackerel in spring 2019 has had little effect on prices so far, he said.

The most important markets for Norwegian mackerel are Japan and South Korea, where the MSC ecolabel isn't yet well-known enough to dictate purchasing.

“Some of the big companies there are starting to require it now, they have some targets, but it's not having an effect for demand yet,” said Torgnes.

Mackerel prices are likely to ease further in 2020, with quotas up strongly year-on-year. The Norwegian share is up around 40%, at 213,880 metric tons, though as of March 3 only 13,000t of that has been caught, with the real fishing season yet to begin. Foreign vessels have also landed 69,000t of mackerel in Norway in 2020. 

So far prices have averaged NOK 13.09 per kilogram, compared with NOK 13.92/kg at this stage of 2019.

On the other hand, the loss of MSC for Atlanto-Scandic herring – potentially on the cards for 2021 – would likely have a stronger market impact. “The central European market is important for herring, and they do tend to want MSC.”

“It's not had a market impact yet, but if we get to the fall of this year and the market thinks it looks likely that the MSC won't be kept, we could see that leading to higher prices.”

Prices for this herring are up in 2020 compared with 2019, though this has been down to supply rather than anything to do with a future MSC issue, he said. As of March 3 prices had averaged NOK 5.47/kg, compared with NOK 4.02/kg in 2019.

This significant difference has been driven in part by the demand for herring with roe.

2020 is the fourth year running in which Norway has been unable to land capelin in the Barents Sea, and suppliers of capelin roe to Asian markets have turned instead to herring, as previously reported.

Sildesalslag has seen the price of herring for roe quadruple year-on-year in 2020, resulting in whole herring at times trading at nearly NOK 6/kg to the fisherman, said Torgnes.

“We expect NVG [spring-spawning, or Atlanto-Scandic] herring prices to remain higher y-o-y in 2020. The Egypt market is up on last year,” he added -- borne out by Norwegian Seafood Council (NSC) statistics that show Egypt, Lithuania, and Poland were the key markets for herring in February.

"Herring catches have been of particularly good quality," said NSC chief analyst Frank Isaksen. "The average price in February was approximately 20% higher than last year measured in US dollars, and when measured in Norwegian kroner, the average price this year has been almost 35% higher than last year. This is due to the weakness of the Norwegian krone."

Isaksen did note some logistical challenges being reported in some ports in Asia as a result of the COVID-19 virus, "while in other markets such as Eastern Europe and Africa there have been no such reports of disruption".

Meanwhile, Torgnes went on to say herring fillet prices were stable, while whole-round frozen herring was up in price. "That's first-hand prices, but exporters may be expecting sales prices to lift along with them.”

North Sea herring is a stable picture at present, with 2019's fishmeal and oil prices helping to support prices, “especially for those caught at the ideal fat content”.

Last year saw landing levels more even between human consumption and reduction (96,500t, compared with 59,500t for fishmeal/oil) and with much less of a price gap than usual. Landing catches for fishmeal can be preferable for fishermen if the price is attractive, as vessels can generally fish and carry more per trip.

The early end to Peru's anchovy fishing season over the winter is also likely to contribute to increased prices for blue whiting in 2020, with increased demand from the fishmeal and oil sector. Norway's quota is fairly stable at 360,283t for 2020.

As of March 3 76,498t of this has been registered to Norway's auction house, compared with 104,000t in 2019. However, Torgnes noted, large catches have been landed instead to Killybegs, Ireland, so supplies are probably not any lower at this stage of the year.

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