Brokerage expects 40% salmon price drop in autumn

January 9, 2014, 8:20 am

A Norwegian brokerage expects farmed salmon prices out of Norway to drop to below NOK 30 in late autumn, reported Hegnar Online, citing the financial newspaper Finansavisen.

The peak in prices has been reached, and prices should drop again following a 12-13% estimated increase in volumes in the second quarter of the year, said the brokerage Fondsfinans.

Writing in a fresh report, the brokerage reportedly said the price will fall dramatically, and downgraded the entire Oslo-listed salmon sector from “buy” to “hold”.

Prices of less than NOK 30 would represent a 40% drop from levels of more than NOK 52 seen at the close of last year.

On Monday, Norway revealed that its seafood exports reached an all-time high of NOK 61 billion (€7.25bn/ $9.87bn) in 2013. This was largely due to higher salmon prices — salmon exports made up for NOK 39.8bn, or 65%, of those exports, a 35% increase from 2012.

According to Fish Pool, Norwegian spot prices averaged NOK 52.81 (€6.27) per kilo in the last week of 2013.

Fondsfinans expects the average for 2014 to stabilize at NOK 37.30/kg, with levels of less than NOK 30 late in the autumn.

The brokerage’s analyst Bent Rolland pointed to lower levels from Chile and delayed harvesting in Norway that will keep supply tight in the winter. However, he then expects a volume increase of 12-13% in the second quarter of the year.

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